reduced and recycled

I’m in a pessimistic mood again, which is odd given how I’ve enjoyed myself for the past few days: met the funniest person this side of Malaysia; partied till I went nuts; finished quite a bit of my work; and watched my anime. Simple pleasures.

But I’ve kept an eye on the goings-on surrounding the Danish cartoon issue. By the way, a sly, funny look at the whole issue over here at Crooked Timber - a good read, and the comments are even better, as usual. Anyway, I’ve been pottering around google and Zero’s recommendation, the International Crisis Group webby when I came across this website during one of my more aimless google wanderings. Al-Qaida’s endgame. A series of scenarios, first published, I gathered, in November 2001. Running through it reminded me of this, of course, and I tried to see the humour in that ominous phrase “Al-Qaida’s endgame”.

I didn’t. And now with escalating tensions over the Danish cartoons, it appears as if things might accumulate into something which we cannot see yet, but which we can feel, I think. I get disparate impressions when I think of this, reviewing my thoughts of the past few days. If you’ve watched Syriana, you’ll hear this phrase mentioned: “90% of your GDP is based on oil”. A few days ago, I watched a newsbit on Kuwait. The reporter juxtaposed the new developments - ultra-modern - against the run down sections of Kuwait, remarking that such disparaties could only be the work of the nouveau riche, or rather, the newly oil-rich.

I wonder how things will end: when the oil runs out, what will large blocs in the Middle East do? Suppose the escalation of tensions amongst Muslims doesn’t end. Suppose Muslims the world over, being newly-convinced of their power to influence European societies - if not mobilize opinion around the world - decide to pursue their own collective interests (and is this a coherent question - who’s interests, anyway?): what will happen then?

I was thinking of Fallout-like situations; in the game, and in the Fallout Bible as far as I can recall, the annihilation of society began with Chinese belligerence and a subsequent nuclear strike. Think classic MAD scenario and years later humanity crawls about on the remains of society to eke out a meaningless existence.

Then in real-life, suppose Al-Qaida gains control of petroleum production in the Middle East. The US is either forced to come to the table, or wrest those resources by force from the supplanted Saud and Kuwaiti governments. War erupts. In typical Al-Qaida fashion, petroleum production - a hostage - is destroyed. Society is crippled. A scramble begins. The US annexes Canada to gain better access to Alaskan oil fields. China moves south and west and annexes oil-rich nations. In 2 years, renewed tensions erupt over the possibility of oil running out in 20 years. The US faces down China on one front and has to deal with terrorists without a raisons d’être for existing. War erupts. In a century or two, humanity crawls back onto scorched earth from the depths to start all over again.

And the above is called having a ‘hyperactive imagination’, I believe. Then again, who knows?