I just caught Jacqueline Ann Surin’s phone interview on ChannelNewsAsia, where she described an information landscape that remains outside the grip of the government machinery.. and I think I should say here: thank you, Malaysiakini! Last night’s coverage has justified my subscription to Malaysiakini many times over, although I know they offered the news free. The constant updates were invaluable and, when contrasted with news coverage on ASTRO’s AWANI channel and Bernama.com, just showed how biased the news media remains.
I managed to catch a bit of sleep before heading out to meet a friend from KL, now working in Singapore. We discussed several issues back and forth, and we had a really good discussion on possible strategies available to BN and the Opposition coalition, Barisan Rakyat. Just idle talk, and all of this predicated on the idea that wresting power away from the other in parliament is a priority.
I think little needs to be said about the advantages of hitting an enemy while it’s confused, disorientated and dazed. My friend suggested that the one thing BN needs to do now is to focus on causing defections: form an alliance with one of the opposition parties. It makes sense: to retain a 2/3rds majority, any of the three Opposition parties joining BN will fulfill this quota. Of course, the question of who is crucial. I can’t see DAP allying itself with UMNO (essentially; BN doesn’t exist anymore - think about it). That’ll be committing political suicide, but it’s the fastest route to power. I don’t think that’ll happen.
An alliance with PKR or PAS is more likely - if at all. There were rumours some time back about how DSAI was looking for a way back into power - well, this is an opportunity to appear both as saviour and kingmaker to a lost UMNO and steal the march on Najib’s likely nomination to the UMNO top post. I’m hoping this doesn’t happen, since it’ll be a betrayal of promises made in the run up to the elections. PAS is an unknown quantity, to me - I don’t know much about the party, and so I don’t know how likely an alliance with UMNO will be.
In any case, what we did agree upon is that the strategy that now makes sense is to encourage defections. UMNO’s 140 parliament seats is awfully close to the 148 required for a 66% majority, whilst Barisan Rakyat’s 82 seats is relatively close to the 111 seats (50%) needed to cripple Badawi’s new government and prevent them from initiating plans without scrutiny - everything, therefore, will have to brought to the table. Just which of the 8 out of 82 parliamentarians who will be? I definitely don’t know.
On Barisan Rakyat’s side, the situation is abit easier, in my opinion. I think with the drastically reduced representation of Chinese and Indian voters in BN, it’s obvious that the communal power-sharing formula is effectively irrelevant. That leaves MIC, MCA and Gerakan out in the cold, doesn’t it? MCA has won 15 parliamentary seats, whilst MIC managed only 3 and Gerakan, 2 seats.
If Barisan Rakyat is able to convince these three parties to join a truly multi-racial coalition, that’s 20 parliamentary seats in the bag. That just leaves 9 more seats for DSAI to steal from somewhere - and it effectively isolates UMNO and pushes it even more to the edge of its relevance in voter’s eyes, ripe for the pickings come the 13th General Elections. With the current turmoil UMNO is in, nibbling at its flanks and stealing support is a possible strategy, who knows?
Or, and this is what we concluded, the opposition could just stick to giving the people what they want… hahaha
Comments (8)
Bare in mind that BR is not UMNO46. Unless BN want more humiliation.
The whole deck of card is unlike the pass.
PKR wins big that Anwar must shed off the idea of “return” . PAS Tok Guru will laugh if anyone offer them a defect. And forget about luring DAP.
BTW, to create defect, you need money, lots of money. Go check the stock market.
Great Article.. I have always thought of the opposition defecting but have never thought of BN component parties defecting to the other end..Now, that really make me start thinking.
If Sabah and Sarawak joins BR, Anwar could be the nxt PM.
@moo_t: just speculation, that’s all. As it stands now, I think BR are feeling that they’ve got too much good will from the people to waste. What’s more unfortunate for UMNO, in my opinion, is how they’ve polarized their position against that of the opposition - hence making bitter enemies out of the component parties of the BR, as you’ve pointed out.
On the stock market, yeah, it’s a bit scary how it’s collapsed so soon after the elections - but I understand that companies doing badly are all crony-linked. How that will have an effect on investor perception and other counters is anyone’s guess at this juncture.
@chris/AM: the time is ripe - and it’ll be the ultimate, psychological blow to the touted UMNO/Barisan unity. I mean, with a little wheelin’ and dealin’, DSAI as PM may not be so far fetched.
If MCA and MIC join BR, as I fear may happen and which many people, especially the Malays, stupidly overlooked, that will be end of the Bumiputra rights and the Malays, largely but not entirely, will be driven back to where they came from…the Kampungs and the sawahs while the Chinese tighten their vice grip on the economy and their newly found political power.
@Concerned: you’ve got to understand - it wasn’t just the Chinese and Indians who swung the vote for the Opposition. It was the Malays who did as well, whether for PAS, DAP or PKR.
What you’ve described would ring true if we’re still ensconced in UMNO’s world i.e. a Malaysia separated by communal politics. BR is the first real sign that there could be a chance for a different kind of politics - unity in diversity.
Or, at least, BR should strive to be such a sign. It remains to be seen if the components of BR can truly share power.
PAS was part of Barisan Nasional during the 1970s but left the coalition in 1978. It is unlikely that they will return.
- MENJ
the possibility of MCA, Gerakan and MIC defecting will become reality comes the next UMNO convention. Hopefully, Hishamuddin will draw the kris again and/Or KJ insulting them. Year in and year out the component party of BN are being threatened and humiliated during UMNO’s election. If they still have some honor left the component parties should not wait any longer, join PKR now. BN treats them like pieces of shit. Believe me they will still treat you guys as pieces of shit and beggars. Nope?? try to recall the last UMNO convention, remember?? This also applies to The East malaysians parties. Yes THINK seriously.
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[...] reduced and recycled rehashed rearranged reiterated pre-rendered < post election thoughts: defection [...]
[...] few days after the GE12, I blogged about possible defections. From my calculations back then I speculated 20 seats in the bag and 9 to drawn out from somewhere [...]