The fact of the matter is, there will be no better way to shame Anwar Ibrahim than to beat him in his traditional stronghold. It’s better than resorting to the tainted claim of sodomy, which - it has become clear - people don’t believe anyway. The problem for BN, I suppose, is the fact that no one will believe that they won fairly if they wrest Permatang Pauh away from Anwar. So what is a tyrannical, byzantine dictatorship to do? Flail about in anger, I suppose.
Amidst all the stupidity, it appears that there are some people with an inkling of an idea on how to go about winning the day against Anwar Ibrahim. Yes, they’ve attempted to hijack his slogan by naming theirs “Merdekakan Permatang Pauh” so while DSAI’s campaign focuses on the possibilities for Malaysia should he win the by-elections, Barisan Nasional have chosen to push for something a little closer to home with the voters in Permatang Pauh by offering them the chance to “be rid of Anwar Ibrahim”.
The failure or success of such a strategy will, I suppose, depend on how susceptible the people of Permatang Pauh are to pork-barrel politics, how willing they are to believe Barisan Nasional’s promises of reform and the fight against corruption, and how much weight is given to the unsubstantiated assertions made by BN politicians about Anwar’s involvement in sodomy and corruption. In other words, I think it will all boil down to how much cleaner Barisan Nasional is seen when compared to Anwar Ibrahim’s track record.
(By all accounts, leaders in Barisan Nasional have conceded that the fight would be a tough one, and the chances of winning, slim to nothing, which goes to show you how much confidence Barisan Nasional has of its chances of coming off smelling like roses.)
Sure, it may also boil down to Anwar Ibrahim’s own presence in the constituency, and the loyalty of its voters, to DSAI which has no doubt be demonstrated over the course of the past three elections ever since he was jailed. If Anwar is able to turn on the charm and keep his cool whilst BN continues to shoot itself in the foot, it may turn out to be a walkover.
By shooting itself in the foot, I mean how Barisan Nasional, already tainted by the fact that the blame for the horrible state of affairs in the country must rest on their shoulders, attempts to play the saint by seeking to “free Malaysia from Anwar Ibrahim” whilst intensifying the mudslinging. It’s pretty much like a thief accusing his victim of theft. (I laugh, incredulous, at BN’s impertinence!)
For me, the tension and excitement of following the Permatang Pauh by-elections stems from the fact that this election might be Barisan’s last chance of stopping Anwar Ibrahim from coming back into parliament. Sure, imprisonment is still an option or they could resort to a gamut of Emergency laws, but the tide has swung decidedly in Pakatan Rakyat’s favour; now, the Opposition and Anwar Ibrahim have the initiative. Imprisonment - for any reason - now will spark more chaos and resentment than it’ll be worth just to keep DSAI out of parliament. Barisan is pinned to very few options now, so to speak. And for the same reasons, assassination is completely out of the picture. Yes, I live in hope.
So let’s imagine for a while that Barisan Nasional stategists are multi-multi-step thinkers. The only reason I can think of for BN to have abandoned hauling Anwar Ibrahim up on trumped up charges and incarcerating him in some hell-hole is because they must believe that Anwar alive and in prison is far worse a prospect than Anwar discredited and shown the door to political exile. Following that logic, BN strategists must have known that the only way to get rid of Anwar would be to defeat him at the polls.
I’m sure someone in Pakatan must have seen this or known this, because his decision to fight in Permatang Pauh, in retrospect, is either pure luck or pure genius. No, I don’t think the reason lies simply with choosing the strongest base of support from which to relaunch his political career (which is simply logical) and no, I don’t just think it’s a matter of playing it safe. I think it’s all about luring Barisan Nasional into a battlefield of Anwar Ibrahim’s choosing. It doesn’t take a scholar of Sun Tzu to tell you that if you must fight, you should pick when and where to fight. And choosing the strongest place to fight, especially after sodomy charges and the threat of prison are thrown in your face, is only logical.
Before the 17th of July 2008, everything was still up in the air. Anwar Ibrahim appears in court and in a stunning move, he is allowed bail. I didn’t catch the significance of DSAI securing bail at the time, but it definitely indicated some things to me, whether accurate or not: that Barisan was truly putting all its eggs in one basket with their plan to destroy Anwar Ibrahim politically, and everything will boil down to Anwar’s planned by-elections; and that allowing Anwar to walk free might be a misguided attempt at seizing the initiative by forcing him to solidify a date for the by-elections (and also where he will be standing) and daring Anwar to prove that there would be massive crossovers on September 16th.
I suppose if the second of the above conclusions is accurate, it would prove that UMNO leaders really do believe that Anwar can force the massive crossovers to Pakatan Rakyat that he had been promising, despite what they are saying in the mainstream media. Did Barisan lose sight of their priorities? Was Anwar able to create such a storm behind the scenes that the threat of Barisan losing its position and the cabinet blinded it to what must now be admitted as DSAI’s sole objective: getting back into parliament?
All things considered, I suppose Barisan planners were keeping an eye on the supposed 60-day stipulation for by-elections to be held once a seat had been vacated. Maybe the plan was to delay the by-elections as long as possible to further discredit DSAI and prove him a liar if nothing happens on the 16th of September? Who knows, but DSAI’s announcement on the 31st of July that he was standing in Permatang Pauh must have caused a few blanched faces amongst the 4th floor coterie. When I heard the news, I knew that the initiative was still firmly in DSAI’s grip.
I almost pity Barisan Nasional: the fact that there was ugly in-fighting about who will stand against Anwar, and all admissions in the mainstream media that “Permatang Pauh is tough” seemed to say that Barisan were caught woefully off-balanced by DSAI’s announcement. I can’t imagine that they knew Anwar would stand in Permatang Pauh, because if they knew, they would never have allowed him to leave court on 17th July. So now the by-elections will be held on 26th August, if I remember correctly. I don’t think Barisan Nasional believes it can afford to push the limits of the 60-day stipulation because the overwhelming likelihood that Anwar will win must, I think, force Barisan to play for space.
And now, I think we are seeing Barisan Nasional approaching its worst: there seems to be an air of manic desperation about its efforts to woo voters of Permatang Pauh, and I think it’s become clear that they are taking the fight on-line and pushing all panic buttons. The arrest of Bakaq of Penarik Beca seems like an indication of things to as we near the September 16th dateline. It’ll now be a matter of engaging in a multi-pronged attack on DSAI and online dissent.
I expect Barisan to throw its weight against Anwar’s partners in Pakatan Rakyat, too. No one will be spared, I suppose, because I’m now thinking that Barisan feels it is being backed into a corner with no way out. Talks with PAS have fallen through, it appears, with lots of help from online revelations of just such talks and UMNO is without allies to turn to for support: both MIC and MCA have been teetering on the edge since March 8th and have never (and will probably never) fully recovered from the shock. Gerakan is a has-been party.
The last thing we want is a Barisan Nasional feeling like it’s got nothing to lose anymore, and still holding on to the reigns of power and the government machinery. The potential for heartache and despair is still enormous. And this is where Barisan’s play for space worries me. Should Anwar return to parliament, Barisan might collapse into a frenzy of trying to prevent crossovers from ever occurring - and anticipating these crossovers are like trying to anticipate when death will strike: a fate worse than death itself, simply because no one really knows - apart from DSAI - who else besides SAPP might crossover in East Malaysia or elsewhere.
Maybe UMNO really will haul Anwar Ibrahim up on sodomy charges after all, and risk irreparable damage to its image amongst its own base of support, the Malay heartland - all to stay in power.
Worse: UMNO might resort to the Final Solution.
I might be misguided, but you see why I’m a little tense?
Comments (5)
The current situation is worrying. BN/UMNO might launch another operasi lalang and lock up all PR MP, then what going to happend? Or much worst, try to harm Anwar. If anything happend to Anwar, could you imagibe the consiquences? in international level, malaysia become pariah and set the same level as zimbabwe. Locally, malaysian will lost it change for change for better future. people will be angry, desperate and lost hope. riot, political & economy instability, there goes our country become a falling nation.
I recalled a letter to the BBC “Your Say” column quite some time ago chastising all the bullsh*t from the Thai Press about Thaksin Shinawatra and all the naive comments from the foreigners in Thailand.
The letter quoted from Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator” where the only way Emperor Commodus could destroy a person with a great name, was to first destroy that person’s your good name.
Seems to me, all this intellectual capital we talk about is only for misuse. For evil, and not for good.
Why?
@proximus: UMNO prefers to be the ruler rather than the ruled. The stakes are high and civil servants favoured by the government know this. Businesses with links to BN politicians know this. The Police and members of the judiciary beholden to the Barisan ‘way’ know this. They aren’t about to let things slip out of their control without a fight, and of all people, I’m sure Anwar Ibrahim knows this.
I get the impression you are accusing the government of trying to assassinate someone? For what? Just who is Anwar? Is he so important that the BN government which has ruled for over 50 peaceful will resort to murder? When did we become an African banana republic in your eyes, and how many testable cases of political murders has this BN government went and done do you have in your box of evidence?
You seem balanced, but some parts of your writing are highly questionable. Sorry. I hope I won’t be an assassination target for writing the above.
@zahar: No, comments and commenters are exempt from assassinations, political or otherwise. If we can’t have a civil discussion about stuff like this, we’re all in trouble. :)
In respect of accusations, Anwar remains alive, so I think your question on whether I am accusing the BN government of assassinating him is a bit misplaced and a bit like jumping the gun. As for trying.. I don’t know. I’m not privy to such information.
In respect of evidence that they might try or have in fact done so, I do not have any. In fact, I have no evidence of the government committing any assassinations, murders or, if the euphemism is preferred, “removals”. But then again, neither have I accused the government of committing any of the above. I have wondered, not asserted, I think that much is clear in what I’ve written.
Murder, like imprisonment, character assassinations, poisoning the well, etc. are all options. If the apparent 50 years of ‘peaceful rule’ are the standard by which we are judging what the government is capable (or not capable) of doing, I think it’s a weak standard.
In the name of this peaceful rule, dissidents have been summarily incarcerated under Emergency laws; deaths in prison have been ignored, covered up or explained away; families have been torn apart and destroyed - and what for? For the greater good or for the perpetuation of the status quo?
Have we become a banana republic? Well, the more appropriate question, I think, is what do you think Barisan Nasional (or UMNO?) will be capable of doing if it suddenly finds itself, for the very first time since independence, bereft of power - and that’s what I’m asking.
As for who Anwar Ibrahim is, well, his importance is, I think you’ll agree, directly proportional to the time and resources Barisan Nasional are investing into beating him in Permatang Pauh, don’t you think…?
No, the current government and its allegedly peaceful rule has not given me much confidence, unfortunately.